Ocean techniques to aid producers

Improving forecasts | Ocean and atmospheric data | Improving yields | Satellite forecasting |

Improving forecasts

The ocean is the key to forecasting long-term climate variability, according to CSIRO researchers. Improved seasonal climate forecasting will significantly benefit Australia’s agricultural and production industries, they say. The agricultural community currently relies on climate predictions based largely on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). According to CSIRO Tropical Agriculture’s Dr Andrew Ash, the predictions are useful but have short lead times, modest reliability, and are not universally applicable across Australia.

“Improved forecasts targeted towards specific agricultural industries and regions are now possible,” “These are based on a physical understanding of ocean processes, and include the influence on Australia’s climate of sea surface temperatures (SST) from regions other than the equatorial Pacific.”

Ocean and atmospheric data

Dr Ash’s work, supported by the Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation’s National Climate Variability Program, involves evaluating these new forecasting techniques that are based on ocean and atmospheric data, and matching them to industry needs.

The potential benefits to Australia’s agricultural industries from this new-age forecasting technique are immense. Annual gains and losses associated with climate variability in agricultural production alone are estimated at around $1bn. “Good long-term forecasts will significantly improve agricultural gains in good years, cut losses in bad years, and help land managers minimise environmental impacts,” Dr Ash added.

CSIRO researchers are concentrating on applying better seasonal climate variability forecasts for the dryland cropping industries, the extensive grazing industries and the sugar industry.

Improving yields

“Tactical delays to planting times greatly improve expected yields in dry years while increasing fertiliser inputs can add considerable value in wet years to the dryland cropping industries. However, many of these decisions must be taken six to 12 months ahead which is at the limit of SOI-based prediction methods.

“Similarly, with the extensive grazing industries, managers of rangeland enterprises need to match animal numbers to a forage supply that varies enormously from year to year.

“We have shown that better management of this variable can produce a 24 per cent increase in economic returns as well as reducing the dependence of industry on drought support. Reliable seasonal forecasts nine to 12 months in advance would allow managers to make better economic decisions,” says Dr Ash.

Satellite forecasting Agencies are also looking into the potential use of Global Positioning System (GPS) technology to be used to monitor climate change and climate forecasting. Queensland’s Department of Primary Industries, University of Technology (QUT) and the Cooperative Research Centre for Satellite Systems have joined in a feasibility study of the technology .