Far North 2030: turn on the fan, pass the banana prawns

Climate models suggest a warming of 0.4 to 1.4°C inland and 0.3 to 1.0°C on the coast. The confidence for this forecast is moderate to good; i.e. above 50 per cent but not as high as 95 per cent. In some areas such a rise would produce a 50-100 per cent increase in the number of days above 35°C.

Sea levels should rise by between 10 and 25 cm. Due to thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of glaciers. Similar confidence to temperature predictions.

Dry season rainfall should decrease slightly. All the rainfall predictions are less certain than those for temperature and sea-level.

Wet season rainfall changes are less certain. Predictions vary depending on the model used. Models suggest increases in intensity and more extreme rainfall events.

The timing and geographic distribution of rainfall is also difficult to predict. Such changes will have important impacts on natural ecosystems, crops and the pastoral industry.

Cyclones may increase in intensity by up to 20 per cent and persist further south. Woody weeds could spread in the rangelands. These plants benefit from increased CO ₂ and from disturbed conditions more than many other plants.

Fire regimes could change. Clearly changes in extreme temperatures, rainfall and vegetation could affect fire regimes. It's just that no one knows exactly how.

The health of indigenous people may face the greatest risk from climate change. Poor water quality, sanitation and lack of other health resources make indigenous communities particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

The positive side? There may be benefits to some crops that grow well in higher temperatures and CO ₂ levels and more flooding in coastal waters means we may get more banana prawns.